Backtest performance

The model is evaluated walk-forward: each completed match is predicted from ratings available before that match, then ratings are updated chronologically.

Matches

414

Log loss

1.170

Brier

0.159

Accuracy

55.3%

Tuned parameters

Grid search selected homeElo=90, K=32, temperature=1 by log loss with Brier tiebreak.

Generated 2026-06-09T00:44:57.244Z from ESPN Core API data.